A team led by the University of Exeter has been awarded £5 million by the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) to investigate early warning signs of climate “tipping points”.
A tipping point occurs when a small change sparks an often rapid and irreversible transformation.
The new project – Advancing Tipping Point Early Warning (AdvanTip) – will focus on the Subpolar Gyre, an ocean current system that could tip quickly and soon.
Led by Professor Tim Lenton, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, the project aims to achieve a breakthrough in early warning of tipping points based on progress in theory, AI and physical understanding.
“Before a tipping point happens, we can identify signs that a system is becoming less stable,” Professor Lenton said.
“We already have well-established early warning signals for some systems.
“While we have identified signs of a ‘critical slowdown’ in the Subpolar Gyre, we have yet to find reliable signals in all models.
“By focussing on the Subpolar Gyre, we can increase confidence and precision about when tipping points are likely to be crossed.”
The Subpolar Gyre is a northern part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a large system of rotating currents in the Atlantic Ocean that plays a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate.
Collapse of the Subpolar Gyre – potentially triggered by melting Arctic ice – could fundamentally alter conditions in parts of Europe.
In the UK, this could mean more extreme weather patterns with hotter summers and colder winters; impacting the ability to farm and grow crops; and damaging infrastructure and public health.
Stuart Brocklehurst, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Business Engagement and Innovation) at the University of Exeter, said: “This ARIA funding is a major boost to our ground-breaking research on tipping points.
“Climate tipping points represent some of the greatest dangers we face, and accurate identification of early warning signals is vital.
“At Exeter, we are also working on powerful solutions – including positive tipping points in our societies and economies – to ensure a safe and just future.”
The AdvanTip research team includes the University of Leicester, the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the University of Bordeaux and Utrecht University.
Backed by £81 million over five years, ARIA’s Forecasting Tipping Points programme will unite 27 international teams in a collaborative effort to detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points.