Experts in “tipping points” have set three challenges for world leaders meeting at the COP30 climate summit.
An international team of 160 researchers recently published the Global Tipping Points Report, which said the world faces a “new reality” due to escalating threats from Earth system tipping points.
But positive tipping points are already driving rapid change towards zero emissions – and smart choices at COP30 can accelerate this vital progress.
In a policy brief for COP30 and beyond, tipping points experts call on leaders to:
“The choices we make at this moment matter enormously,” said Professor Tim Lenton, from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.
“To minimise potentially catastrophic risks from crossing Earth system tipping points, ‘overshoot’ of 1.5°C global warming has to be minimised.
“COP30 convenes at a moment when the conditions for global cooperation are weakening, yet the need for coalitions of the willing has never been greater.
“Leaders face a stark choice: guide humanity carefully along a narrow ridge or risk a fall that future generations cannot climb back from.
“If leaders act now, the story changes. We are approaching a precipice, but public leadership can shift our collective path from peril to prosperity.”
The policy brief includes a checklist for governance action to meet the threats from Earth system tipping points.
Dr Manjana Milkoreit, from the University of Oslo, explained: “Tipping points pose distinct governance challenges – but our existing institutions do not yet take this into account.
“Tipping point risks should be embedded in all national and regional climate, development and security strategies, along with early warning and rapid response mechanisms.
“It is vital to ‘frontload’ emissions cuts – phasing out fossil fuels as quickly as possible to reduce the risk of triggering Earth system tipping points.
“Governance should also address non-climate drivers of ecosystem collapse, scale sustainable carbon dioxide removal, and ensure justice and solidarity, supporting the most vulnerable nations and communities.”